資源枯渇に対処するための社会制度について、一つの考え方――耐用年数価格

　まず朝日新聞の記事の引用から始めることにする。

「世界の大油田、生産ピーク過ぎた」ＩＥＡ研究者が警告
2009年8月3日23時18分

　【ヒューストン（米テキサス州）＝勝田敏彦】国際エネルギー機関（ＩＥＡ、本部・パリ）の研究者が「世界の大油田の原油生産はすでにピークを過ぎ、世界全体でも１０年後にはピークを迎える」と分析していることがわかった。３日付の英紙インディペンデント（電子版）にインタビューとして掲載された。ＩＥＡの関係者が石油のピーク時期について明確に言及するのは珍しい。

　インタビューに答えたのはファティハ・ビロル博士。記事によると、世界の埋蔵量の４分の３を占める８００以上の油田について初めて詳細な分析をしたところ、多くが生産のピークを過ぎており、５年以内に供給不足が起きて経済に大きな影響が出る可能性があるという。

　もとのIndependent紙の記事も末尾に掲げておくことにする。

　つねづね思うことだが、今の資本主義が経済の制度として最も優れているとして、しかしそれが明白な問題を抱えていることもまた明らかである。その問題とは、大きく言えばいわゆる環境問題であり、よりミクロな形で言えば物・資源の浪費である。価格を維持するために畑のキャベツをブルドーザーで潰す光景がこういう場合によく想起されるが、もちろんそれだけでなく、以前何かで聞いた、日本では年間11兆円分もの食料が廃棄されているという話もまた、資本主義のなせるわざと言えよう。これがおかしいことは明らかなのだが、しかしこれに手をつけることが今の人間にはなかなかできずにいる。資本主義に代わる制度を見いだせないから、或いはより正確に言えば、見いだせないと思っている（思い込んでいる）からである。

　私はいわゆる経済学は落第であり、またそもそも、いわゆる近代経済学（最近ではこんな言い方はしないだろうが）などというものははなから馬鹿にしている口なので、いかなる意味でも経済・経済学の専門家ではない。しかし、経済或いは経済学の専門家とやらが何も言わないので、素人として、以前から思っている或る思いつきをこの際書いてみたく思う。

　資本主義とは、私の理解が間違っていなければ、価格メカニズムによってすべてを律する経済制度だと言えよう。この価格が一元的に比較可能なところから、様々な分野で競争が生じ、それが結果として良い効果を及ぼしているということは、今さら私ごときが言うまでもあるまい。ただ問題なのはここであって、例えば上で言った、価格維持のためにキャベツを廃棄するというような話は、数日で品質が損なわれるキャベツという産品の性格上なかなか解決が難しい問題なのだが、しかしそこまでいかないものについては、価格形成という面で工夫があって良いのではないか。つまり、価格というものの中に時間を組み込むのである。

　言い換えるなら、言わば耐用年数価格とでも言うべきものが、価格メカニズムにおいて採用されるべきなのではあるまいか。

　「耐用年数価格」の意味をわかりやすく説明するなら、例えば靴を考えてみると良いかもしれない。或る靴を履いて、もちろん履きつぶすまでの期間は人によって異なるわけだが、しかしそれでも、一応平均的な使用可能期間というものは計算可能なのではあるまいか。話の都合上、計算可能だということにして、例えばＡという靴が10000円で２年もつとする。この場合、この靴Ａの耐用年数価格は5000円／年である。これに対してＢという靴が20000円で５年もつとする。この場合、この靴Ｂの耐用年数価格は4000円／年である。このようにして、現行の（すなわち見かけの）価格体系では靴Ａは靴Ｂより安いが、耐用年数価格表示からすれば実はＢのほうがＡより安いし、実際使う側からすれば、真の意味で安いのはＢのほうである。

　耐用年数価格を採用することのメリットは明らかだろう。すなわち、それによって、資本主義制度に由来する（つまり制度的な）資源浪費が大幅に防げる可能性があるのである。

　但し、実現のためにはもちろん問題は少なくない。まず何よりも、誰がその耐用年数とやらを決めるか、である。これについては、いろいろな商品テスト機関が競って耐用年数を発表するのが良いのではないかと私は考える。そのような競争が進めばおのずと、この分野の商品の耐用年数についてはこの機関が信頼に値するということがわかってくるはずである。また、信用度を見極める程度のことは、消費者が自ら行なうべきだろう。付け加えるなら、こういう機関はもちろん一種の格付け機関だと言うことができるが、ムーディーズその他の、世間を騒がせるだけで全く世の役に立っていない（と私は思うのだが）格付け機関などに比べれば、遥かに良心的な格付け機関だと言えよう。

　他にも問題はあろうが、しかし、まずはアイディアを言っておくのが肝要だと思うので、ここではアイディアの提示にとどめておきたい。

　Independent紙の記事は以下のとおり。

Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast
Catastrophic shortfalls threaten economic recovery, says world's top energy economist
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
Monday, 3 August 2009

The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production, a leading energy economist has warned.

Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and a stagnation, or even decline, in supply could blow any recovery off course, said Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, which is charged with the task of assessing future energy supplies by OECD countries.

In an interview with The Independent, Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years – at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated.

But the first detailed assessment of more than 800 oil fields in the world, covering three quarters of global reserves, has found that most of the biggest fields have already peaked and that the rate of decline in oil production is now running at nearly twice the pace as calculated just two years ago. On top of this, there is a problem of chronic under-investment by oil-producing countries, a feature that is set to result in an "oil crunch" within the next five years which will jeopardise any hope of a recovery from the present global economic recession, he said.

In a stark warning to Britain and the other Western powers, Dr Birol said that the market power of the very few oil-producing countries that hold substantial reserves of oil – mostly in the Middle East – would increase rapidly as the oil crisis begins to grip after 2010.

"One day we will run out of oil, it is not today or tomorrow, but one day we will run out of oil and we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day," Dr Birol said. "The earlier we start, the better, because all of our economic and social system is based on oil, so to change from that will take a lot of time and a lot of money and we should take this issue very seriously," he said.

"The market power of the very few oil-producing countries, mainly in the Middle East, will increase very quickly. They already have about 40 per cent share of the oil market and this will increase much more strongly in the future," he said.

There is now a real risk of a crunch in the oil supply after next year when demand picks up because not enough is being done to build up new supplies of oil to compensate for the rapid decline in existing fields.

The IEA estimates that the decline in oil production in existing fields is now running at 6.7 per cent a year compared to the 3.7 per cent decline it had estimated in 2007, which it now acknowledges to be wrong.

"If we see a tightness of the markets, people in the street will see it in terms of higher prices, much higher than we see now. It will have an impact on the economy, definitely, especially if we see this tightness in the markets in the next few years," Dr Birol said.

"It will be especially important because the global economy will still be very fragile, very vulnerable. Many people think there will be a recovery in a few years' time but it will be a slow recovery and a fragile recovery and we will have the risk that the recovery will be strangled with higher oil prices," he told The Independent.

In its first-ever assessment of the world's major oil fields, the IEA concluded that the global energy system was at a crossroads and that consumption of oil was "patently unsustainable", with expected demand far outstripping supply.

Oil production has already peaked in non-Opec countries and the era of cheap oil has come to an end, it warned.

In most fields, oil production has now peaked, which means that other sources of supply have to be found to meet existing demand.

Even if demand remained steady, the world would have to find the equivalent of four Saudi Arabias to maintain production, and six Saudi Arabias if it is to keep up with the expected increase in demand between now and 2030, Dr Birol said.

"It's a big challenge in terms of the geology, in terms of the investment and in terms of the geopolitics. So this is a big risk and it's mainly because of the rates of the declining oil fields," he said.

"Many governments now are more and more aware that at least the day of cheap and easy oil is over... [however] I'm not very optimistic about governments being aware of the difficulties we may face in the oil supply," he said.

Environmentalists fear that as supplies of conventional oil run out, governments will be forced to exploit even dirtier alternatives, such as the massive reserves of tar sands in Alberta, Canada, which would be immensely damaging to the environment because of the amount of energy needed to recover a barrel of tar-sand oil compared to the energy needed to collect the same amount of crude oil.

"Just because oil is running out faster than we have collectively assumed, does not mean the pressure is off on climate change," said Jeremy Leggett, a former oil-industry consultant and now a green entrepreneur with Solar Century.

"Shell and others want to turn to tar, and extract oil from coal. But these are very carbon-intensive processes, and will deepen the climate problem," Dr Leggett said.

"What we need to do is accelerate the mobilisation of renewables, energy efficiency and alternative transport.

"We have to do this for global warming reasons anyway, but the imminent energy crisis redoubles the imperative," he said.

Oil: An unclear future
Why is oil so important as an energy source?

Crude oil has been critical for economic development and the smooth functioning of almost every aspect of society. Agriculture and food production is heavily dependent on oil for fuel and fertilisers. In the US, for instance, it takes the direct and indirect use of about six barrels of oil to raise one beef steer. It is the basis of most transport systems. Oil is also crucial to the drugs and chemicals industries and is a strategic asset for the military.

How are oil reserves estimated?

The amount of oil recoverable is always going to be an assessment subject to the vagaries of economics – which determines the price of the oil and whether it is worth the costs of pumping it out –and technology, which determines how easy it is to discover and recover. Probable reserves have a better than 50 per cent chance of getting oil out. Possible reserves have less than 50 per cent chance.

Why is there such disagreement over oil reserves?

All numbers tend to be informed estimates. Different experts make different assumptions so it is under- standable that they can come to different conclusions. Some countries see the size of their oilfields as a national security issue and do not want to provide accurate information. Another problem concerns how fast oil production is declining in fields that are past their peak production. The rate of decline can vary from field to field and this affects calculations on the size of the reserves. A further factor is the expected size of future demand for oil.

What is "peak oil" and when will it be reached?

This is the point when the maximum rate at which oil is extracted reaches a peak because of technical and geological constraints, with global production going into decline from then on. The UK Government, along with many other governments, has believed that peak oil will not occur until well into the 21st Century, at least not until after 2030. The International Energy Agency believes peak oil will come perhaps by 2020. But it also believes that we are heading for an even earlier "oil crunch" because demand after 2010 is likely to exceed dwindling supplies.

With global warming, why should we be worried about peak oil?

There are large reserves of non-conventional oil, such as the tar sands of Canada. But this oil is dirty and will produce vast amounts of carbon dioxide which will make a nonsense of any climate change agreement. Another problem concerns how fast oil production is declining in fields that are past their peak production. The rate of decline can vary from field to field and this affects calculations on the size of the reserves. If we are not adequately prepared for peak oil, global warming could become far worse than expected.

Steve Connor, Science Editor